How to Predict Hacker News Post Upvotes Using Neural Networks

Jun 13, 2024 | Data Science

Are you curious about the secret ingredients that make a Hacker News (HN) post go viral? What if you could leverage the power of neural networks and NLP to predict how many upvotes a title might garner? Welcome to the world of HN Titlenator, a project that uses neural networks to analyze and classify post titles on HN!

Understanding the Motivation

As a member of the HN community, I found myself pondering how the timing and wording of a post could influence its popularity. After gathering data from 1256 stories through the HN API, I discovered trends that indicated Friday noon (UTC-3, Brasilia) was an optimal time to share stories. The challenge was to delve deeper—could word choice in titles be the secret sauce for getting over 70 upvotes?

How Does the Neural Network Work?

To tackle this question, I decided to train a neural network by incorporating the words from post titles. Imagine teaching a child to recognize good and bad fruit just by looking at them. You would show them good apples and bad apples and explain why one is better than the other. In the same way, our neural network learns from the titles of posts and their upvote counts. Each title is labeled as *good* if it exceeded 70 upvotes and *bad* otherwise.

Steps to Train the Neural Network

  • Data Collection: Extract the titles from HN posts using the HN API.
  • Word Counting: Measure how many words are in each title—our longest title had 17 words, while the average had about 9.
  • Input Formatting: Prepare the neural network to take in 20 words for classification. Titles with fewer than 20 words will be padded with zeros for consistency.
  • Dictionary Creation: Utilize a dictionary to assign numerical values to each word.
  • Web Application: Build a simple interface where users can input their titles and immediately see the predicted classification.
# Sample Code Snippet for Data Processing
import pandas as pd

# Load the data
data = pd.read_csv("hn_stories.csv")

# Process titles
def process_title(title):
    words = title.split()
    # If title has less than 20 words, pad with zeros
    while len(words) < 20:
        words.append(0)
    return words[:20]

data['processed_titles'] = data['title'].apply(process_title)

Limitations of the Project

While this project provides fascinating insights, it is important to recognize its limitations. With access to only 1256 stories, the dataset is relatively small for deriving robust conclusions. Additionally, validating the predictions made by the neural network would require posting content and observing the results, which is somewhat impractical.

Troubleshooting Tips

  • Data Quality Issues: Ensure that the data collected is clean and relevant to enhance model accuracy.
  • Model Performance: If the predictions aren't satisfactory, consider retraining the network with a larger dataset or adjusting the word dictionary.
  • Interactive Issues: If the web app encounters bugs, verify your code for any syntax errors or logic flaws.

For more insights, updates, or to collaborate on AI development projects, stay connected with fxis.ai.

Conclusion

Through this project, we tapped into the intriguing intersection of timing, word choice, and neural networks. As we navigate the constantly evolving landscape of technology, leveraging such models could enhance our understanding of online engagement.

At fxis.ai, we believe that such advancements are crucial for the future of AI, as they enable more comprehensive and effective solutions. Our team is continually exploring new methodologies to push the envelope in artificial intelligence, ensuring that our clients benefit from the latest technological innovations.

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